Spring was here, we hear.
The market’s April showers led, almost poetically, to May flowers, as a mild correction through the first month of the second quarter gave way to a renewal of first quarter gains and propelled the market comfortably beyond its pre-2022 market highs. Now into early August, however, these lofty levels have given way to a quick selloff over the last couple weeks and may have you wondering where it will go from here.
A selloff was not altogether unexpected; through mid-July the S&P 500, for example, was trading well above technical support levels, which are quantitative levels to which upwardly inclined market prices periodically retrace before moving higher, like a ball bouncing up a hill. In this context, a moderate pullback would be somewhat normal and nonthreatening. However, interest rates haven’t relaxed since the Federal Reserve’s rapid tightening through the middle of last year and the yield curve remained inverted into August, with short-term rates still higher than the long end of the curve, an often accurate, if not timely, harbinger of recession. As if confirming this more worrisome outlook, the most recent jobs figures came in below expectations, sparking fears of economic slowdown. These conditions have us, and probably many investors, feeling a bit uncertain about the market’s next move.
However, an uncertain market future is more the rule rather than the exception, and we believe that a systematic approach to investing is the best way to manage the unknown. Vinoble, aside from enacting quarterly rebalances and allocation adjustments to our portfolios, follows a combination of economic and quantitative indicators that determine the level of equity exposure in our target risk models; when bullish, we allocate to the top end of our allowable equity exposure, and vice versa when bearish. These indicators ended the second quarter still firmly entrenched in a bullish outlook, where they remain at the time of this writing, but could be subject to sudden change should market conditions continue to deteriorate. We will continue to monitor the evolving market conditions and systematically adjust our allocations accordingly.